【英文】国际战略研究中心报告：加强美国-菲律宾和美国-泰国的伙伴关系（27页）

英文研究报告 2021年08月20日 06:47 管理员

Given China’s clear strategic intent, the focus in the NDS on strengthening alliances is well placed but left unstated is an uncomfortable truth: U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacifc vary dramatically in terms of reliability, capability, and clarity of strategic rationale. U.S. alliances with Japan and Australia have never been stronger, as these partners develop new defense capabilities, build interoperability with the United States, and increasingly work together as a networked security architecture. Te U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance is on somewhat shakier political footing, but the alliance remains resilient, deeply institutionalized, and well managed.Te strategic drift in these two alliances demands focused dialogue between U.S. experts and practitioners on one side and Philippine and Tai counterparts on the other to shore up the strategic foundations of the alliances, identify ways to strengthen the mutual benefts of cooperation, and examine the implications of the emergence of great power competition with China.

Furthermore, defense policymakers and warfghters need to better understand Philippine and Tai strategic assessments and threat perceptions to inform assumptions about the role the alliances would play in the event of confict with China. With this goal in mind, CSIS convened a series of of-the-record virtual workshops in early 2021 with U.S., Philippine, and Tai experts and practitioners. Te goal was to generate timely, credible, and actionable insights into the current and future state of the alliances. Te discussions also highlighted the political constraints on each relationship and the signifcant diferences between them. CSIS closed out its series of workshops on the alliances with a virtual U.S.-Philippines tabletop exercise. Tis involved a complex near-future crisis in the South China Sea in which China moved quickly to change the status quo through gray zone coercion while exploiting seams within the U.S.-Philippines alliance. Te exercise highlighted how badly the deck is currently stacked against the allies in any efort to rapidly respond to a gray zone challenge by China backed by naval force. Te results were largely predictable, but the process of reaching them was highly instructive.