【英文】2021年中美贸易战对南亚经济的影响（280页）

英文研究报告 2021年09月08日 06:05 管理员

The chapter is organised as follows. Section 2 outlines the position of China and the USA in the global trade scenario. This section also analyses the impact of the trade war on other countries. Section 3 describes Chinese emergence as the global economy and a leader in the global production network. Section 4 explores China’s growing trade surplus with the USA while the next section comments on the implications of US trade policy for China and other affected economies. Section 6 summarises the opportunities in the global value chain for the emerging economies. The fnal views of repositioning and convergence are noted as a concluding refection. 2 US–China and the share of global trade With growth rates above the average trend during the past two decades and the largest trade surplus with the US, China is the primary target of the trade war unleashed by the US.

Steep tariffs are the frst weapon in bilateral tensions damaging global economic integration tied to ever more intense technology competition. This move by the US is alarming. In the worst-case scenario, these conficts may dissociate both economies, cause lasting global recession, and usher in new geopolitical confrontation. The Trump administration, in particular, relies on an emergency status quo, new campaign fnance, and ‘big money’, which poses signifcant risks not only to US–China relations but also to internal democratic norms and the existing international order. As a consequence, US–China trade has shown a precipitously downward trend. Estimates based on the quarterly growth of exports to China and imports from China to the US have noted a steep decline over the years, as noted in Figure 2.1.