【英文】美国智库报告：中国的国家资本主义（96页）

英文研究报告 2021年10月22日 07:12 管理员

These layers of government policies and incentives have aligned to promote domestic EV-battery production. Te central government frst published a “Notice on Implementing Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Pilot Program” in 2009 and, since then, has implemented policies to encourage EV adoption, many of which were intended to increase demand.1 In 2015, several government agencies jointly announced a subsidy policy for EV purchases, which after multiple modifcations and extensions was most recently extended in 2020 to $2,300 to $3,200 per vehicle.2 Te Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also published a list of approved battery suppliers, and only EVs with batteries produced by one of those suppliers were eligible for the subsidy (with all of the listed suppliers being Chinese).3 Chinese government procurement of EVs has provided additional support in the form of approximately $1 billion in new-energy vehicles per year.4 Province- and municipalityspecifc plans together support the central plan and have more detailed goals and incentives, which often focus on increasing demand for EVs.

Capacity utilization in China’s EV-battery manufacturing plants appears to have been quite low. Te automotive industry considers 80 percent to be full capacity utilization, but there is often signifcant short-term variation.9 EV-battery production capacity is measured in gigawatt-hours (GWh), where 1 GWh equals 1,000,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh). Chinese EV-battery capacity reached 235 GWh in 2019, outpacing the goal of 100 GWh by 2020, with 300 GWh more under construction.10 Assuming 60 kWh per car (slightly more than the average among EVs sold in the United States), that was enough capacity to produce over 3.9 million EVs in 2019 (Figure 7.2). Many Chinese EVs have much smaller batteries, meaning Chinese manufacturers likely have room to build more. China’s EV sales in 2019 totaled 834,000 vehicles, more than half of the 1.5 million sales globally.11 Global sales increased even further in 2020 to 2.25 million, with Chinese sales accounting for over 900,000.12 Chinese capacity may be necessary to meet future global demand. Te International Energy Agency projects that EV sales could increase from 1.5 million in 2019 to over 7.1 million in 2025, for which there is not nearly enough battery capacity.13 Tis inability to accommodate anticipated sales may provide an opportunity to Chinese suppliers.