【英文】摩根士丹利报告：2022年全球宏观经济展望：通胀强劲高于全球GDP增速（45页）

英文研究报告 2021年12月01日 05:10 管理员

Supply chain disruptions are key: A key maintained assumption in our forecast is that the sclerotic nature of the global supply chain reverts to a more normal state over the course of next year. Based on surveys and feedback from our equity analysts, we infer that we are now at or close to the worst level of supply chain disruption. As noted above, we expect the price-level increases in the US from this disruption to finish around the end of 2021. Although each industry will differ, on average we are assuming that there is generally easing in supply conditions over the course of next year, with supply chains on average normalized at end-2022. Commodity prices to stop rising: One key component of the current inflationary debate is the sharp rise in commodity prices, including but not limited to oil prices. Taking oil as an example, the oil futures curve as of October 18, 2021 has Brent peaking at US$83/bbl in December 2021 and then retreating to US$75/bbl at the end of 2022 and US$70/bbl at the end of 2023. Once the price stops rising, the inflationary effect would dissipate. As the price retreats, at least for headline measures of inflation, we should see some downward pressure.

We do not think that the particularly strong growth we are seeing in the US will be sustained. Recovery from the sharpest contraction on record combined with historic fiscal support has resulted in extraordinarily strong growth in the US. We look for 2021 growth to be 4.9% on a 4Q/4Q basis and remain at that pace in 2022, although we have deceleration on a year-average basis. Our growth forecast is decidedly above consensus, prompting the question of what supports our view of growth next year. We point to the key factors: deferred demand, lack of a fiscal drag, and inventory-building. We know that supply constraints have resulted in surging prices for various categories of expenditures in the US. In the simplest analysis, the demand curve shifted out along an upward-sloping supply curve. A difficult but important question is how much of that demand shift in quantities will be deferred until next year. In our US economics team's forecast, roughly 20bp of next year's growth is making up for such deferred consumption, while the rest is simply demand destruction. The most prominent example is in autos, where purchases dropped dramatically as supply fell, and we expect most of that shortfall to be recouped.

【英文】摩根士丹利报告：2022年全球宏观经济展望：通胀强劲高于全球GDP增速（45页）