【英文】新美国安全中心报告：全球数字秩序的未来（55页）

In exploring how a closed, illiberal order is taking  root in strategic regions around the world, this report  ofers recommendations for how to craft, promote, and  preserve a more open and democratic alternative. An  assessment of crosscutting trends between China, Russia,  and the Middle East across three pillars—information  control, surveillance, and technology governance—leads  us to the following conclusions:  China is the prime mover in shaping the evolving  digital order in its favor. Beijing’s use of technologies  such as facial recognition software and telecommunications networks allows the Chinese Communist Party  (CCP) to expand control over its citizens. The CCP’s  ability to promote and export this model of digital  repression, in turn, gives like-minded, nondemocratic  governments a roadmap for how to deploy digital technologies for control and abuse in their own countries.  Russia’s model of digital authoritarianism, while  technologically less sophisticated than China’s, could  prove to be more readily adaptable and enduring for  current and aspiring autocrats. Regional powers such  as Belarus, Azerbaijan, and some Central Asian states  have already incorporated elements of this model.

In the Middle East, authoritarian leaders use digital  tools to control internal populations by sabotaging and  spying on citizens, and this contributes to the construction of an illiberal digital order that is benefcial to  America’s peer competitors—China and Russia. These conclusions reveal four key trends with  implications for the future of the digital order: Growing China-Russia alignment will generate  dangerous digital synergies, such as (1) making  digital autocracy accessible for a broader swath of  states; (2) accelerating China’s and Russia’s digital  innovation; (3) eroding liberal norms in international institutions; and (4) raising the prospects of  a “splinternet,” a fragmenting of the internet along  nationalistic, political, technological, religious, or  ethnic lines. ¡ Countries around the world, particularly autocratic  regimes and those firting with illiberalism, will  seek to regulate online communications platforms  through (1) social media; (2) data localization laws;  and (3) instigating company self-censorship, which  restricts free speech and increases online control.