【英文】高盛集团报告：2022年宏观展望：通往更高利率的漫长道路（19页）

英文研究报告 2021年12月13日 06:44 管理员

Global growth in 2021 has broadly matched our above-consensus 6% prediction of a year ago, as illustrated in Exhibit 1. In particular, the US, UK, Brazil, and Russia all came in well ahead of consensus forecasts. And even in the Euro area, where annual-average growth looks to be on track for a consensus outcome, the back-loaded sequential pattern means that the economy made up a lot of ground through the year.By contrast, we did not anticipate the 2021 inflflation surge. While we had built a positive base effect from the exceptionally weak prints during the initial 2020 lockdown and some upward pressure on prices in reopening service sectors into our forecast, we missed the two most important inflflation sources, namely the excess demand for durable goods and the labor supply squeeze. Since we now expect both of these inflflation drivers to abate only gradually and partially, we have pulled forward our policy rate liftoff projections across most major economies, including the US where we are now calling for the fifirst funds rate hike in July 2022.Although the fastest pace of the recovery now lies behind us, global GDP is likely to grow 4½% in 2022 for the year as a whole, more than 1pp above potential (Exhibit 2).

Especially in the advanced economies—with the exception of the Euro area where Q3 was very strong—we expect a signifificant near-term acceleration that should extend well into 2022 (Exhibit 3).In recent months, we have also become more optimistic about the impact of fifiscal policy on growth. This is straightforward in the Euro area, where the likely German center-left coalition looks set to spend more and the EU Recovery Fund will start funding investment projects in greater size next year.3 But even in the US, the outlook is better than suggested by standard measures of the fifiscal impulse.4 The fact that the US personal saving rate remains at 7.5% as of September—a month with strong consumption and mostly without extended unemployment benefifits—suggests that consumers have already largely absorbed the loss of government support without either a meaningful cutback in spending or an undue decline in the saving rate. Moreover, it suggests that the consumption boost from the $2.4trn stock in US pent-up savings is still ahead of us, at least in aggregate.