【英文】世界银行报告：2022年中国宏观经济展望（68页）

英文研究报告 2022年01月03日 06:23 管理员

Global growth has moderated but remains solid (Figure 2.A). The pandemic continues to linger, with new cases rising again globally, driven by a rapid upsurge across Europe and prompting tighter pandemic restrictions in many economies. Advanced economies still benefit from favorable financing conditions and continued, if diminished, fiscal policy support amid high vaccination rates. Economic activity, however, remains uneven in Emerging Market and Developing Economy (EMDE) countries, in part reflecting different levels of policy support and unequal access to vaccines. Many EMDEs are already experiencing tighter financing conditions amid persistent price pressures and elevated EMDE sovereign credit spreads. Portfolio outflows from EMDEs accelerated in late October and early November in the midst of growing concerns about inflation, growth, and high levels of government debt.

Higher commodity prices and rising input costs are being passed through to output prices, contributing to elevated inflation. High frequency indicators point to a moderation in global trade growth amid persistent supply disruptions. These disruptions, along with sharp increases in commodity prices, have contributed to inflationary pressures globally. Throughout 2021, inflation in EMDEs has accelerated rapidly, with median inflation doubling from 2.7 percent year-overyear in January to 5.3 percent in September. In many economies, the sharp increase in headline inflation has partly reflected rising food and energy prices (Figure 2.B). Energy prices have surged, reflecting sharp increases in natural gas and coal, which has affected other commodities, especially food. Some prices have reached levels not seen since the 2011 price spike. Brent crude oil prices reached a seven-year high of $86/bbl at the end of October.