【英文】联合国报告：2022年世界经济形势与展望，世界经济面临巨大阻力（231页）

英文研究报告 2022年01月21日 09:23 管理员

Global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic hinges on a delicate balance amid new waves of infection, labour market challenges, lingering supply-side constraints and rising inflationary pressures weighing heavily on near-term growth prospects. The global economy grew by 5.5 per cent in 2021 – the highest growth rate since 1976 – after contracting by 3.4 per cent in 2020. World gross product in 2021 was 1.9 per cent higher than in 2019 but still 3.3 per cent below the level projected before COVID-19. The recovery of output in 2021 largely represented the resumption of household spending and investment, which had come to a screeching halt in 2020 amid lockdown measures worldwide. The world economy is projected to grow by 4 per cent in 2022 and 3.5 per cent in 2023, converging towards its long-term trend of around 3 per cent per year between 2010 and 2019. But these aggregate figures mask strong divergence in growth prospects as a significant number of developing countries are struggling to recover from the pandemic.

The projected growth rates for 2022 mark a small upward revision from the forecasts in the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021, even as significant downside risks emerged during the fourth quarter of 2021 (table I.1). The growth momentum of the first three quarters of 2021 – especially in the United States, the European Union and China – slowed as the stimulating effects of fiscal and monetary measures began to dissipate and supply-side challenges emerged at the end of the year. The easing of supply-side constraints and the taming of inflationary pressures will remain critical to keep the global economy on the projected near-term growth trajectory. Growth prospects, however, face significant risks and uncertainties, including new mutations of COVID-19, such as the Omicron variant that began spreading in late November 2021. Growth forecasts presented in this report remain susceptible to potential lockdowns and other restrictive measures worldwide. In addition, as major central banks start to withdraw their extraordinary policy support, global financial conditions may tighten considerably, weighing on global recovery.