【英文】摩根士丹利报告：中国互联网行业报告：元宇宙！下一代移动互联网？（45页）

英文研究报告 2022年02月28日 07:52 管理员

We expect the Metaverse TAM to be expansive and go beyond the current online consumption market, which is mainly dominated by e-commerce and online entertainment spending. Our calculation on the Metaverse TAM is based on current consumer expenditure across three major categories: 1) online and offline entertainment, 2) consumption of goods, and 3) other sizable consumption services. We expect half of the Metaverse TAM (i.e. #1 "online migration" scenario of ~Rmb25tn or US$3.9tn) is transferred from current online driven consumption mainly on goods, services and entertainment spending onto the Metaverse. However, we estimate the other half of the TAM of ~Rmb27tn or US$4.1tn is an incremental TAM, which is an expansion of current offline driven verticals spending (mainly real-estate, autos and education, which result in our "#2 offline disruption" scenario of a total estimated China Metaverse TAM of Rmb52tn or US$8tn.

We expect a lower offline spending conversion rate in scenario #1, as it mainly covers existing high online-penetrated verticals such as e-commerce (FMCG/fashion & beauty) and online entertainment (i.e., gaming & live streaming), thus we expect half of the total TAM can be easily migrated from current online driven spending onto the Metaverse. Our #2 TAM is our incremental TAM analysis where we include verticals which currently have a low online penetration rate, mainly real estate and autos (estimated <3%), education (estimated <5%) and enterprise IT spending (estimated 10-15%). We expect roughly half of the Metaverse TAM (~Rmb27tn or US$4tn) is an incremental offline spending conversion. Bear in mind this model only represents existing verticals. New areas such as digital collectibles, NFTs and virtual concert spending have not been considered in this analysis.