【英文】HSBC报告：2022虎年中国投资策略：繁荣、机遇和可持续性（163页）

英文研究报告 2022年03月01日 08:52 管理员

China’s slowing economy in recent months has prompted Beijing to step up policy easing to shore up growth. How and when will these measures kick in and help drive a recovery? As a guide to 2022, we highlight five key macro themes: More easing. We expect the PBoC to cut the reserve ratio for banks and increase relending (banks given funds to lend to customers) to boost cash available for higher-end manufacturing, green projects and SMEs. The central government is also set to increase spending on technology and allow local governments to borrow more to bolster investments in new infrastructure like 5G.

Meanwhile, Beijing will also likely slow the pace of regulations to mitigate the negative impact on growth. Manufacturing investment is set to quicken. Despite softer global demand, investment in mid to high-end manufacturing is set to gain momentum next year thanks to improving profitability and high capacity utilisation rates. Indeed, manufacturing capex spending has already picked up, reaching a two-year CAGR of over 6% since August, higher than 2019’s growth of 3.1%. More generous tax incentives and other policy support for technology upgrading should also add fuel to the upturn in manufacturing investment, which will likely grow by double digits.