【英文】瑞信报告：2022年全球投资回报年鉴（50页）

英文研究报告 2022年03月21日 06:50 管理员

The left panel of Figure 2 shows the equivalent breakdown at the end of 1899. At the start of the 20th century, the UK equity market was the largest in the world, accounting for almost a quarter of world capitalization, and dominating the USA (15%). Germany (13%) ranked third, followed by France, Russia, and AustriaHungary. Again, 11 Yearbook countries are shown separately, while the other 12 countries for which we have data for 1900 are aggregated and labeled “Smaller DMS 23” countries.

In total, the DMS database covered over 95% of the global equity market in 1900. The countries representing the missing 4.7% labeled as “Not in DMS 23” have been captured in later years by the 12 new markets added in 2021/22 and the full DMS 90 database. However, we do not have returns data for these markets back in 1900. Survivorship bias A comparison of the left- and right-hand sides of Figure 2 shows that countries had widely differing fortunes over the intervening 122 years. This raises two important questions. The first relates to survivorship bias. Investors in some countries were lucky, but others suffered financial disaster or very poor returns. If countries in the latter group are omitted, there is a danger of overstating worldwide equity returns.