【英文】瑞信报告：中国投资策略之俄乌冲突：重新评估能源安全（40页）

英文研究报告 2022年03月24日 12:21 管理员

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has sent rounds of shock waves to the markets, triggering fears of a supply crunch as Russia is the world’s leading natural gas and crude oil exporter. The global market took a hit with oil prices spiking, while volatilities are high in most markets. In the near term, we believe China’s economy will not be significantly impacted, but still be affected by the ripple effect, mainly on PPI. We believe the conflict will trigger reassessment of energy strategies among global policymakers, bringing profound changes in the energy landscape. China will likely place energy security at higher priority and take a more pragmatic approach to achieve its long term carbon neutrality goal.

Europe also needs to seriously review its energy policy. Our energy and materials analysts conducted scenario analysis on price and volatility to assess the potential risks. In the scenario of Europe halting oil and gas imports from Russia with China’s imports not affected, oil price could hover at US$130-140/bbl level for an extended period, and Europe gas price would continue to surge but China’s gas import cost would largely unaffected; but in the scenario of all Russian oil and gas imports being banned, energy prices would soar to unprecedented levels that could drag the world’s economy into crisis.