【英文】兰德报告：颠覆而不改变，新冠病毒对全球经济平衡的影响（107页）

英文研究报告 2022年04月11日 06:43 管理员

In the United States, GDP in the second quarter of 2020 was 9 percent below that in the second quarter of 2019, and that was one of the milder declines. The European Union (EU)—especially the south—and the United Kingdom (UK) had the largest declines of the major economies, and double-digit declines were common throughout the EU. The Group of Seven (G-7) economies of Japan and Canada also experienced a doubledigit decline in the second quarter. China experienced its major COVID-19 decline earlier, in the first quarter, when GDP fell 6.8 percent—the first quarterly decline since China started reporting its quarterly GDP in 1992. Considering that China’s quarterly GDP was regularly in the range of positive 6 percent, this represented a decline on par with that of the other, slower-growing major economies.

Most economies started to recover by the third quarter. By the end of 2020, many economies were experiencing positive growth once again as measured by fourth quarter GDP relative to third quarter GDP (not shown in the figure). Among the G-7 countries, only France and Italy continued to experience an economic decline. However, no major Western country ended 2020 with GDP higher than the level at the end of 2019, as measured by the change from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2020 (the second bar for each country or country group in Figure 2.2). U.S. GDP at the end of 2020 was 2.4 percent below GDP at the end of 2019, GDP in the 27 countries of the EU was 4.6 percent lower, and UK GDP was 7.3 percent lower, the worst of all major economies. Only China ended the year with GDP higher than it started at the beginning of the year.