【英文】世界贸易组织报告：乌克兰危机，战争对全球贸易和发展的影响（36页）

英文研究报告 2022年04月29日 06:13 管理员

The war in Ukraine is costly and dangerous for the world. It adds new shocks to a stillfragile global economy, alongside continuing impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. For Ukraine, the human and economic costs associated with the war are enormous and growing. According to a report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP, 2022), the Ukraine Government estimates physical assets worth at least US$ 100 billion have been destroyed. The UNDP (2022) estimates that the war has caused 50 per cent of Ukrainian businesses to shut down completely, while the remaining 50 per cent are forced to operate well below capacity. The UNDP (2022) estimates that should the war deepen and endure, up to 90 per cent of the population of Ukraine could be facing poverty and vulnerability to poverty. Even before the war, the post-pandemic recovery was divergent.

Rich and some emerging economies were converging with prepandemic output trends, thanks to abundant fscal capacity and access to vaccines, while poorer countries had registered bigger growth shortfalls, with many facing debt distress. The trade shocks ignited by the war will be felt everywhere, but they risk exacerbating this divergence in economic, social and development prospects. Attaining the Sustainable Development Goals will take longer, cost more and be harder to achieve.2 The WTO’s economists’ initial projections for Ukraine indicate that its GDP could decline by as much as 25 per cent compared to the pre-war outlook, depending on the extent of destruction.3 Beyond the daily loss of its physical capital stock, Ukraine is seeing growing gaps in its balance of payments and declines in tax revenues. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Ukraine’s gross external fnancing needs would amount to US$ 4.8 billion. In addition, the Centre for Global Development estimates the cost of supporting Ukrainian refugees (i.e. with housing, food, medical expenses, schooling, etc.) to be around US$ 30 billion a year for welcoming nations.