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【英文】世界贸易组织报告:乌克兰危机,战争对全球贸易和发展的影响(36页)

英文研究报告 2022年04月29日 06:13 管理员

The war in Ukraine is costly and dangerous  for the world. It adds new shocks to a stillfragile global economy, alongside continuing  impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. For  Ukraine, the human and economic costs associated  with the war are enormous and growing. According  to a report by the United Nations Development  Programme (UNDP, 2022), the Ukraine Government  estimates physical assets worth at least US$ 100  billion have been destroyed. The UNDP (2022)  estimates that the war has caused 50 per cent of  Ukrainian businesses to shut down completely, while  the remaining 50 per cent are forced to operate  well below capacity. The UNDP (2022) estimates  that should the war deepen and endure, up to 90  per cent of the population of Ukraine could be  facing poverty and vulnerability to poverty.  Even before the war, the post-pandemic  recovery was divergent. 

Rich and some  emerging economies were converging with prepandemic output trends, thanks to abundant fscal  capacity and access to vaccines, while poorer  countries had registered bigger growth shortfalls,  with many facing debt distress. The trade shocks  ignited by the war will be felt everywhere, but they  risk exacerbating this divergence in economic,  social and development prospects. Attaining the  Sustainable Development Goals will take  longer, cost more and be harder to achieve.2 The WTO’s economists’ initial projections for  Ukraine indicate that its GDP could decline  by as much as 25 per cent compared to the  pre-war outlook, depending on the extent of  destruction.3 Beyond the daily loss of its physical  capital stock, Ukraine is seeing growing gaps in its  balance of payments and declines in tax revenues.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates  that Ukraine’s gross external fnancing needs would  amount to US$ 4.8 billion. In addition, the Centre for  Global Development estimates the cost of supporting  Ukrainian refugees (i.e. with housing, food, medical  expenses, schooling, etc.) to be around US$ 30 billion  a year for welcoming nations.

【英文】世界贸易组织报告:乌克兰危机,战争对全球贸易和发展的影响(36页)

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