【英文】国际货币基金组织报告：2022年全球金融稳定报告（105页）

英文研究报告 2022年05月05日 11:55 管理员

Across regions, equity prices have been less afected in the United States and advanced Asia, as these economies are seen as relatively more shielded from the direct impact of the war and supported by the strong incoming economic data. In Europe, by contrast, investors appear to be more concerned about possible risks to the economic and infation outlook given their geographical proximity to the war, relatively larger exposures, and energy dependency on Russia. Equity prices have fallen in emerging markets, in sync with rising external fnancing costs. Te impact has been particularly pronounced for economies in central and eastern Europe. Chinese equities’ notable underperformance in this period refected rising geopolitical risks but also domestic factors like growth concerns amid COVID-related lockdowns and regulatory uncertainty in the tech industry. Global corporate bond spreads have widened some, surpassing pre-pandemic levels across major sectors and most high-yield segments (Figure 1.3, panel 2). Te increase has been more evident for the lowest-rated frms, pointing to concerns about potential future defaults.

In emerging markets, investors appear to be diferentiating across countries, with those with closer economic ties to Russia through trade and remittances (Caucasus and Central Asia) and more risk-sensitive frontier market economies hit the hardest (Figure 1.3, panel 3). Currencies of Latin American countries and commodity exporters have outperformed relative to eastern European countries and oil importers in Asia (Figure 1.3, panel 4). Volatility has risen sharply in both equity and interest rate markets following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, refecting heightened uncertainty on the economic and policy outlook (Figure 1.4, panels 1 and 2). In equities, market-implied volatility has declined sharply recently, in some cases to levels below those that prevailed before the war, and is anticipated to remain around these levels through the end of 2022. In interest rates, market-implied volatility has remained elevated, refecting uncertainties about the policy normalization process in advanced economies.