【英文】国际投行报告：全球芯片行业，芯片的冲突，台积电、三星和英特尔（63页）

英文研究报告 2022年06月20日 07:58 管理员

Why be OW on Samsung in a memory down-cycle? We admit that the memory commodity cycle could remain challenging again in 2H22. However, a perceived cyclical downturn creates maximum anxiety and fear in the market, and we believe it is important to lean the other way when sentiment moves to extremes. Samsung's current valuation – back to book value (ex-net cash) – implies maximum negativity, and it is often a good strategy to try to allow for the possibility of positive surprises.We do not believe that Samsung merits a premium multiple to TSMC in future… As mentioned in Face-Off – Samsung vs. TSMC – in Depth , by 2023 we expect TSMC's operating margin of 44% to be superior to Samsung’s at 20%, and its average ROIC to be 21%, or ~8ppt higher than Samsung’s. Even now, TSMC is operating in the 41-46% margin range, while Samsung has only two out of four divisions above the 30% level.

We do see potential for slightly higher earnings growth at Samsung of 7% – but we would also "discount"' this a little, because in the past earnings have been volatile in a cyclical downturn. In principle, we think Samsung deserves some re-rating from levels which were too low owing to cyclical factors (memory). However, we are not convinced about the "structural case" here, and believe that TSMC should still command some form of relative premium.For example, one reason for stagnant ROIC at Samsung, despite margin expansion, has been balance sheet deleverage and a mounting net cash position (>US$100bn). However, Samsung has signaled a more aggressive deployment strategy to achieve growth via M&A and this could lead to improving ROIC. On portfolio, we see significant optionality in Samsung making the right strategic M&A to increase its TAM, although our concern would be around paying steep prices.