【英文】世界银行报告：新冠疫情与多重阻力扰乱中国经济增长正常化（74页）

英文研究报告 2022年06月22日 08:38 管理员

Although the financial sector appears resilient to the immediate shocks from the property market downturn, there are vulnerabilities that warrant close attention going forward. The overhang of uncompleted housing, especially in some lower-tier cities, the rising pressures on household balance sheets, the ongoing distress of developers, and the economic slowdown could keep demand for new houses weak. Further relaxation of regulatory controls to reignite investment risks storing up more trouble down the road. The aim for policy in the short run should thus be to stabilize the market and create the conditions for its orderly restructuring.

For example, extending the transition period for compliance with the “three red lines” beyond end-2023 would give developers more breathing space to adjust but allow the authorities to continue to monitor developers closely to ensure there is genuine progress toward deleveraging. In addition to finding the right balance between stabilizing the market and controlling risks in the short term, several structural reforms would put the real estate sector on a sounder footing over the long-term. For example, there is significant scope to enhance the livability and economic vitality of inner cities in China, whilst increasing their density and thus moving away from the extensive model of urbanization followed to date. Changes to urban master plans and floor area regulations could unlock private investment in urban regeneration. Such a shift will also require investment into upgrading public spaces, improving public transport, and enhancing the delivery of public services.