【英文】CNA报告：反击中俄两国的“楔子战略”（134页）

The contest for allies and partners is among the most consequential domains of strategic  competition. Because the US enjoys a worldwide network of alliances and partnerships, a key  feature of this contest involves competitor efforts to weaken Washington’s advantage. The  international relations literature describes such efforts to weaken, dissolve, or prevent  opposing alliances as wedge strategies. The purpose of this study is to shine a light on the  nature of contemporary Chinese and Russian wedge strategies, inform policies to promote  their failure, and contribute to a growing scholarly literature on the phenomenon of alliance  wedge strategies more broadly. Specifically, this study seeks answers to the following research questions: (1) What wedge  strategy tendencies do China and Russia exhibit toward US alliances? (2) To what extent have  these strategies succeeded, failed, or backfired on a given competitor? (3) What do the findings  to the questions above reveal about which type of wedge strategy—carrot- or stick-based—is  most likely to succeed? and (4) What conditions promote these outcomes?

This table points to several key findings. First, among our contemporary cases, China and  Russia frequently exhibit an initial preference for carrot (i.e., reward-based) strategies. Despite  this initial preference, however, they often resort to coercive and subversive strategies after  their rewards fail to produce positive wedging outcomes. Second, China’s and Russia’s coercive and subversive strategies have a poor record of  accomplishment. In some cases, they simply fail. In others, Chinese and Russian strategies  backfire, such as by triggering balancing responses that strengthen rather than weaken  opposing alliances. This outcome is seen most clearly in the case of Australia, which, following  years of PRC coercion and subversion, has drawn markedly closer to Washington, including  reengaging with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad) and forming the AustraliaUnited Kingdom-United States security partnership.