【英文】美联储理事会报告：美国2022年上半年货币政策报告全文（75页）

英文研究报告 2022年07月06日 08:41 管理员

Because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, oil prices rose sharply in early March, reaching eight-year highs (fgure 3). Prices remain elevated and volatile, boosted by a European Union embargo of Russian oil imports but weighed down at times by concerns about global economic growth. In addition, producers in other countries are struggling to ramp up oil production. Nonfuel commodity prices also surged after the invasion, with large increases in the prices of both agricultural commodities and industrial metals (fgure 4). Although the price of industrial metals has declined recently, agricultural prices remain elevated. Ukraine and Russia are notable exporters of wheat, Russia is a major exporter of fertilizer, and higher energy prices are spilling over into the agricultural sector. Export restrictions and unfavorable weather conditions in several countries have also boosted agricultural prices. (See the box “Developments in Global Supply Chains.”) With commodity prices surging and foreign goods prices on the rise, import prices increased signifcantly (fgure 5).

That said, monthly core infation readings have softened noticeably since the start of the year, with the three-month measure of core PCE infation falling from an annual rate of 6.0 percent last December to 4.0 percent in April. In particular, infation stepped down for durable goods, likely refecting some easing in supply constraints. Nevertheless, the recent infation readings have been mixed, remain far above levels consistent with price stability, and are far from conclusive evidence on the direction of infation. Unlike durable goods price infation, core services infation has not declined signifcantly. Housing service prices continue to rise at a brisk pace, and increased demand for travel is markedly pushing up infation rates for lodging and airfares. More generally, rapid growth of labor costs is putting upward pressure on the prices of all labor-intensive services. Measures of near-term infation expectations continued to rise markedly, while longer-term expectations moved up by less The frst half of 2022 saw further increases in expectations of infation for the year ahead in surveys of both consumers and professional forecasters (fgure 6).