【英文】德国墨卡托中国研究所报告：中国新兴的绿色氢产业：政策、研究和商业如何打造新产业（24页）

Hydrogen will play an important role in the global energy transition. It is estimated that  hydrogen will account for 10–12 percent of China’s energy consumption by 2050, and as  much as 22 percent globally.1 For the country to reach this point sustainably and in line  with its emission targets, cheap and scalable green hydrogen technology such as electrolyzers is needed. As costs for carbon-intense fuels increase and electrolysis technology becomes more advanced and efcient,2 green hydrogen is expected to reach price parity with  currently cheaper gray hydrogen within a few years. Foreseeable demand, along with the  fact that today several technologies compete, means the industry will become not only a  lucrative market but also a feld of intense competition, in China and internationally. 

China is the world’s largest hydrogen producer with an annual output of 33 million tons,  over a third of global demand.3 Hydrogen is used in, among other things, chemical, refning,  and metal industries – either as an energy carrier (for example, providing heat or electricity  in metallurgy) or as a feedstock (for example, for producing ammonia). While hydrogen is a  “clean” energy carrier – reacting with oxygen, it produces only heat and water – producing  it can have a signifcant CO2 footprint. China primarily produces brown and gray hydrogen  by using coal or gas (respectively 60 percent and 20 percent of production)4 with high CO2 emissions. To meet its targets to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and then reach  carbon neutrality by 2060, green hydrogen – currently accounting for about 1 percent of  production – will need to replace gray hydrogen as fast as possible (see Exhibit 1).