【英文】花旗银行报告：2022年全球供应链更新报告（49页）

英文研究报告 2022年07月19日 07:47 管理员

As such, measures of the fiscal impulse have swung sharply negative, and fiscal policy accordingly looks to be something of a headwind to growth both in 2022 and in the foreseeable future. At the same time, the legacy of higher debt levels and continuing large budget deficits is complicating the setting of macro policies more generally, especially in some emerging market economies. Similarly, in the face of surging inflation, monetary policy is in the process of returning to a more neutral stance. Notably, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) have launched rate increases from near zero levels, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is in the midst of tapering. In addition, many central banks in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe had already normalized rates by the end of 2021 and, in some cases, are now moving into relatively restrictive territory.

In contrast, central banks in Asia have faced less aggressive domestic inflation pressures and have remained more reluctant to kick off a hiking cycle.In our December 2021 Citi GPS report, we highlighted the critical role of the Delta variant during the second half of 2021; it disrupted production in Asia and forestalled rebalancing back to services. During the first quarter of 2022, the pandemic continued to rage with the onset of the Omicron variant. While the economic effects, to date, have been a notch less severe than with Delta, the challenges it has presented have been consequential, and with the recent lockdown of Shanghai they continue to mount.