【英文】世界银行报告：全球经济衰退在即？（49页）

英文研究报告 2022年10月10日 07:20 管理员

Armed with an understanding of previous global recessions and downturns, we examine the recent evolution of global activity in Section III. Since the beginning of the year, consensus forecasts for global growth in 2022 and 2023 have been significantly downgraded reflecting the effects of the war in Ukraine, persistent supply disruptions, and, perhaps most importantly, global monetary policy tightening in response to elevated inflation. While these forecasts do not point to a global recession as the most likely outcome in 2022-23, they suggest that the world economy will experience a slowdown next year. However, experience from earlier recessions suggests that at least two recent developments increase the likelihood of a global recession in the near future. First, since mid–2021, there has been a steady deterioration in high-frequency indicators of activity globally. Every global recession since 1970 was preceded by a significant weakening of global growth in the previous year.

Indeed, recent forecast downgrades are partly a reflection of data showing weaker global growth. Also, as in the periods preceding past recessions, global asset prices and confidence have declined since the beginning of 2022. Second, all previous global recessions coincided with sharp slowdowns or outright recessions in several major economies. Growth forecasts for the United States, euro area, and China have recently been lowered significantly. In Section IV, we assess the implications of current policies, guided by lessons from previous global recessions. Despite the slowdown in global growth, inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in many countries and shows signs of persistence. To stem the threats from persistently high inflation, and in a context of limited fiscal space, many countries are withdrawing monetary and fiscal support. These tightening policies have exacerbated the weakening of demand while they have counteracted the rise in inflation.