【英文】国际战略研究中心报告：台湾企业如何应对中美局势（附调研报告）（53页）

英文研究报告 2022年11月02日 08:07 管理员

Although Mainland China is by far Taiwan’s largest trading partner and the greatest recipient of Taiwan’s cumulative investment over the past three decades, the companies polled in this survey still ranked China as a less important “economic partner” than others. Using a scale from 1 to 5, with 1 being irrelevant and 5 being extremely important, China fnished last among the fve choices: the United States (4.00), Japan (3.87), Europe (3.61), ASEAN (3.60), and Mainland China (3.50). When asked to identify the factors “possibly negatively impacting your company’s business operations and competitive positioning in the coming year,” the single most common factor mentioned was “Taiwan’s exclusion from multilateral/bilateral trade pacts” (29.7 percent), followed by “insufcient talent” (22.1 percent) and “cybersecurity threats” (19.6 percent). Lack of participation in international agreements was among the top three choices of 64.9 percent of respondents. Hence, it is not surprising that respondents identifed several regional arrangements as important to their businesses (see Figure 3.1).

Although the Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) was most often selected as companies’ top priority (28.8 percent)—refecting a continued interest in extensive, if attenuated, cross-strait ties—the two arrangements Taiwanese companies were most broadly eager to join were the 15-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacifc Partnership (CPTPP), likely because of their large memberships.10 Taiwan formally applied to join the CPTPP in September 2021, but its chances of joining remain decidedly low, particularly without the United States as a member.11 And Taiwan has not applied to join the RCEP; given that the arrangement includes China but not the United States, Taiwan’s prospects for joining are even lower. Respondents were somewhat less interested in the fourmember Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA), Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy, and the U.S.-led Indo-Pacifc Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF).12 And very few respondents expressed interest in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.