【英文】OECD报告：世界经济展望报告（231页）

英文研究报告 2022年12月07日 08:04 管理员

In the past few months some indicators of global economic activity, such as retail sales, industrial production and international trade, have stabilised after a particularly weak second quarter (Figure 1.1, Panel A). This has been helped by fewer restrictive anti-COVID-19 measures in China and a consequent rebound in activity, including car sales (Figure 1.1, Panel B). However, survey indicators point to a loss of momentum in many countries, especially in Europe (Figure 1.1, Panels C and D). In the corporate sector, the global all-industry new orders PMI declined steadily for several months through to October, with a broad-based softening across industries. Consumer confidence is notably weak as well, reflecting in part a decline in real household incomes in most OECD economies, with higher inflation not being matched by faster growth in nominal incomes. Low-income households and rural households have been particularly hit, reflecting the large share of food and energy in their expenditures.

With spot electricity prices generally being linked to the price of gas, the marginal source of electricity generation, record high gas prices have meant similarly extreme wholesale electricity prices in Europe. Only part of that wholesale price surge has so far been reflected in retail electricity prices (Figure 1.3), with many European governments stepping in to shield consumers from the full impact of the increase in the price of imported gas, adding to the usual factors that limit complete pass-through (Kuik et al., 2022), including the delays in adjusting household and corporate supply contracts. However, some large rises have already occurred, and unless wholesale electricity prices continue to decline (as they have in recent weeks), further retail price rises are likely. If these do not occur, there are risks that distribution companies could become insolvent, and that governments implementing price caps could face costly and potentially long-lasting subsidies.