【英文】兰德报告：中国在北极的战略和活动：对北美和跨大西洋安全的影响（180页）

In January 2022, the RAND team organized a scenario-based TTX, titled “China’s Arctic  Reach.” The purpose of this exercise was to better understand the pathways through which  China could become a prominent Arctic player, discuss which of these pathways could upset  the current regional rules-based order, and identify potential responses or mitigation strategies for these pathways. The exercise took place remotely over three hours. It involved 20  participants and eight observers selected for their expertise on the Arctic, China, or both in  academia, research organizations, government, and industry. The exercise revolved around a scenario set in 2035 that described China as thriving politically, economically, socially, culturally, and militarily in the Arctic (see Appendix A). 

Participants were asked to “look back” and identify events and trends (whether in China’s control or not) that could have taken place between 2022 and 2035 and could explain how China  reached such a prominent regional position. The 2035 scenario was not meant to be plausible  as a whole—we would not necessarily expect China to thrive simultaneously in all domains  cited here—but each aspect of the scenario was designed to be plausible individually. The  purpose of this scenario was to elicit discussions from the participants on factors that could  support or hamper a growing Chinese presence in the Arctic, Chinese activities that are of  most concern in the Arctic, and potential ways to address these concerns (see Appendix B for  a summary of key takeaways from the exercise).