【英文】摩根士丹利报告：2023年全球宏观预测报告（63页）

Slower growth is a function of tighter monetary policy. The last 12  months have seen the largest change in the fed funds rate since 1981,  in the ECB target rate since the eurozone was created, and the  broadest tightening of global central bank policy since at least 1980. That tightening was so aggressive because inflation kept beating  expectations. Going forward, this changes. Our economists expect  core inflation to moderate across EM and DM, allowing the global  tightening cycle to pause, then reverse. Why does inflation finally retreat? Skepticism here is understandable; inflation forecasting hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory. 

But  we see several specific supports: In the US, core goods prices can show outright declines as used car  prices fall, overshooting goods consumption moderates (see above),  and high inventories invite discounting. Trends in shelter look more  balanced as rates on new leases cool. In the eurozone, large base effects in food and energy should  reverse, while our economists' forecast of a recession eases core  price pressures. Inflation in EM should generally improve, while inflation in DM Asia  is already more muted. Less core inflation finally gives central banks license to pause (and  then reverse) the tightening cycle. We expect the Fed and ECB to  make their final hikes in January and March 2023, respectively, with  the Fed cutting by 4Q23. Meanwhile, several large EM central banks,  which were well out in front of their DM counterparts, start to ease  materially. By end-2023, we forecast that policy rates decline by  275bp in Brazil, 250bp in Hungary, and 475bp in Chile.