【英文】兰德报告：理解战略竞争的新时代（58页）

英文研究报告 2023年01月03日 11:57 管理员

An initial focus of our research was to generate an analytical lens to help make sense of the enormously complex phenomenon of a multipolar competition. Our review of historical cases and the strategies and tactics of current competitors pointed to four core areas of importance: the global context in which a competition is unfolding, the sources of domestic power of the competitors, their relative international power and influence, and the precise conflicts of interest and ambition between the competitors. These four areas comprised our framework for analysis and initial approach to assessing the strategic competition.Any strategic competition unfolds in a larger context—geopolitical, economic, social, military, and ecological. Major trends underway in each of these areas can strengthen or weaken major competitors.

Countries that align themselves with the “spirit of the age” can gain a competitive advantage; those that fail to keep up with the demands of the context, or to use its opportunities to their benefit, will slip behind. The emerging global context could have especially dramatic effects on the strategic competition: The world arguably stands at an inflection point—in terms of politics, technology, and the character of warfare—that presages dramatic change. Major powers that compete effectively will ride the wave of these changes rather than being placed at a competitive disadvantage.An important source of insights on the current competition is the rise and fall of strategic competition and rivalry throughout modern history. A general pattern emerged: Periods of more zero-sum competition and warfare gave way to times when states reined in their ambitions and cooperated to achieve a degree of collective security. Each era offered lessons in the sources of competition.