【英文】黑石报告：2023年黑石全球宏观报告（16页）

英文研究报告 2023年01月09日 07:09 管理员

We have laid out three long-term drivers of production constraints in the new regime. The first is aging populations. The effects are long in the making but are becoming more binding now. Why? Aging populations mean shrinking workforces. An everincreasing share of the U.S. population is aged 65 or older when most leave the workforce. This is one key reason the supply of U.S. labor is currently struggling to keep up with demand for labor. Just like students and stay-athome parents, retirees are “outside the labor force.” That’s mainly why the share of the adult population that’s inside the labor force – meaning in work or looking for work – is still well below where it was when the pandemic began. That share is also referred to as the participation rate. See the orange line on the chart.

The initial sharp drop was driven by Covid shutdowns: Many who lost their job didn’t look for another one right away given healthcare worries or care-giving responsibilities. Some of that drop in the workforce has now unwound. But the yellow line shows that the part not made up is almost entirely down to aging – the increasing share of the population that is of retirement age – rather than pandemic-specific effects. That’s why we don’t expect an improvement in the participation rate from here, and so no material easing of the worker shortage that is contributing to inflation. Aging is bad news for future economic growth, too. The available workforce will expand much more slowly in coming years than it has in the past. Economies won’t be able to produce as much. And we don’t think aging populations consume substantially less either, particularly when you factor in healthcare demand. That means continued inflation pressure, as reduced production capacity struggles to keep up with demand. We also see rising government spending on care for the elderly adding to debt. Within equities, we like healthcare as a sector developing medicine and equipment to help meet aging population needs.