【英文】黑石报告：2023年黑石全球宏观报告（16页）

We have laid out three long-term  drivers of production constraints in  the new regime. The first is aging  populations. The effects are long in  the making but are becoming more  binding now. Why? Aging populations mean  shrinking workforces. An everincreasing share of the U.S.  population is aged 65 or older  when most leave the workforce.  This is one key reason the supply of  U.S. labor is currently struggling to  keep up with demand for labor. Just like students and stay-athome parents, retirees are “outside  the labor force.” That’s mainly why  the share of the adult population  that’s inside the labor force – meaning in work or looking for  work – is still well below where it  was when the pandemic began.  That share is also referred to as the  participation rate. See the orange  line on the chart.  

The initial sharp drop was driven by  Covid shutdowns: Many who lost  their job didn’t look for another one  right away given healthcare worries  or care-giving responsibilities.  Some of that drop in the workforce  has now unwound. But the yellow  line shows that the part not made up  is almost entirely down to aging – the increasing share of the  population that is of retirement age  – rather than pandemic-specific  effects. That’s why we don’t expect  an improvement in the participation  rate from here, and so no material  easing of the worker shortage that is  contributing to inflation. Aging is bad news for future  economic growth, too. The available  workforce will expand much more  slowly in coming years than it has in  the past. Economies won’t be able to  produce as much. And we don’t think  aging populations consume  substantially less either, particularly  when you factor in healthcare  demand. That means continued  inflation pressure, as reduced  production capacity struggles to  keep up with demand. We also see  rising government spending on care  for the elderly adding to debt.  Within equities, we like healthcare as  a sector developing medicine and  equipment to help meet aging  population needs.