【英文】国际战略研究中心报告：理解中俄军事结盟对跨大西洋安全的更广泛影响（127页）

Most of the source material for this report was gathered prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—a  transformative and disruptive event that challenges many of the key assumptions laid out in the texts.  In the following chapters, Western authors reviewing these source materials recognize the potential  for the war to cause both positive and negative changes to the course to cooperation. Writing about  military exercises, one expert noted that the Russian and Chinese strategic communities “made their  predictions based on the implicit assumption that joint exercises would continue on their current  trajectory” and cautioned that continuity is not a given.5  Tis warning could well apply to cooperation  in other spheres.  

The war in Ukraine poses contradictory implications for the course of Sino-Russian alignment.  Russia’s poor performance on the battlefeld—particularly in the early days of the invasion—has raised  questions about the quality of Russian military technology and the Kremlin’s ability to pursue its  strategic aims efectively. Due to wide-ranging Western sanctions, Russia is cut of from critical supply  chains and funding sources, and it is ostracized in certain international fora. Tese factors could  lead Beijing to reassess the nature of its ties with Russia. On the other hand, Russia’s experience in  attempting to counter and overcome these impacts could prove valuable to Beijing as it girds itself for  increased confrontation with the West in the Asia-Pacifc region. In this case, the war in Ukraine could  contribute to deeper cooperation between Russia and China.