【英文】花旗全球财富投资报告：2023年财富展望（112页）

英文研究报告 2023年02月01日 06:19 管理员

We expect a global recession in 2023 – FIGURE 4. Indeed, the 1.7% annual global growth we expect is likely to be weakest in forty years outside of the Global Financial Crisis year of 2009 and the COVID shutdown year of 2020. Among the major economies, the eurozone and the UK are likely to come out worst, with fullyear contractions of 0.5% and 1% respectively as they contend with sky-high energy costs, as well as policy tightening.

China looks to be one year ahead of the US and may provide some diversification to portfolios in the years to come. Amid weak labor markets and a real estate crisis, the world’s second-largest economy is already in monetary easing mode. After two dismal years, we expect low Chinese profits to rise along with expanding money supply, just as US profits and money supply contract. However, its near-term prospects rely on the ongoing relaxation of its strict COVID measures and continued support for its nascent real estate recovery – see Asia: Broader reopening to enable regional recovery.