【英文】世界银行报告：2023全球经济展望（198页）

英文研究报告 2023年02月07日 06:07 管理员

liquidated more than 15 percent of gross official reserves to cushion the fall in domestic currencies, with larger losses among countries contending with higher inflation (figure 1.14.D). To smooth disruptive short-term volatility in currency markets and bolster investor sentiment, EMDEs can consider foreign exchange interventions where reserves are judged to be adequate. While these actions may alleviate immediate pressures, policy makers will eventually need to rebuild foreign exchange reserve buffers and realign prudential policy to prepare for the possibility of financial stress. Prudential policy efforts will need to prioritize, among other things, adequate bank capital and liquidity, better currency alignment of assets and liabilities, and appropriate levels of leverage in the household and corporate sectors.

Banking system exposures to exchange rate risk and rollover risk need to be monitored carefully and contained through macro- and microprudential policies. Credit quality, nonperforming loans, and currency mismatches need to be reported transparently such that prompt corrective action can be taken. There is an elevated risk of episodes of market dislocation in response to adverse events, given the sharp increase in interest rates after a prolonged period of low borrowing costs. The buffers of both banks and non-bank financial institutions therefore need to be sufficient to absorb sizable shocks, and should be stress-tested where institutions pose potentially systemic risks. In addition, risks from highly indebted corporate sectors can be allayed through insolvency reform and rapid, transparent treatment of nonperforming loans.