【英文】世卫组织报告：针对放射性和核突发事件的国家储备-政策建议2023年（66页）

英文研究报告 2023年02月16日 07:31 管理员

The size of a national stockpile depends on the concept of operations for its development and use (see section 5.3). The quantities of pharmaceutical agents and medical supplies are determined by (a) the anticipated number of casualties, (b) the distribution of injuries requiring urgent or long-term therapy, (c) the medication dosing schedule and (d) the anticipated duration of treatment. It may be difficult to make a realistic estimate of the number of victims requiring medical treatment, as the number of people involved in an incident does not necessarily reflect the number of patients requiring treatment. Furthermore, the density and activity of the population during a radiation incident affect the acuity of medical injuries and the magnitude of the medical response. For example, the release of radioactive material from a low-yield (1 kT) nuclear detonation over a dense urban population may expose hundreds of thousands of individuals to a potentially high dose and/or dose rate of radiation. It may result in tens of thousands of victims requiring emergency treatment and hundreds of thousands requiring psychological and emotional support (Table 1).

The estimates for a higher-yield (10 kT) device are increased by a factor or two or three. The type (or quality) of radiation released (high vs low linear energy transfer) also partly determines the anticipated need. Thus, it has been suggested that approximately 1% of people exposed to radioactive material released from an RDD or “dirty bomb” will require emergent or urgent medical treatment (23). In this case, the number of people requiring emergency treatment may be in the tens and the number of those requiring psychological or emotional support in the thousands or tens of thousands. In the case of exposure to radioactive material released during an NPP accident, millions of people may be exposed to low doses of radiation, as seen after the Chernobyl NPP accident in 1986 (24). In such a scenario, emergency protective actions such as sheltering and limiting consumption of contaminated food and water are more efficient in protecting health and reducing radiation risk. Therefore, the number of MCM and supplies required for a public health and medical response may vary from tens to hundreds of thousands (or possibly millions) of doses and treatments.