【英文】世卫组织报告：针对放射性和核突发事件的国家储备-政策建议2023年（66页）

The size of a national stockpile depends on the concept of operations for its development and use (see  section 5.3). The quantities of pharmaceutical agents and medical supplies are determined by (a) the  anticipated number of casualties, (b) the distribution of injuries requiring urgent or long-term therapy, (c)  the medication dosing schedule and (d) the anticipated duration of treatment. It may be difficult to make a  realistic estimate of the number of victims requiring medical treatment, as the number of people involved  in an incident does not necessarily reflect the number of patients requiring treatment. Furthermore, the  density and activity of the population during a radiation incident affect the acuity of medical injuries and  the magnitude of the medical response.  For example, the release of radioactive material from a low-yield (1 kT) nuclear detonation over a dense  urban population may expose hundreds of thousands of individuals to a potentially high dose and/or dose  rate of radiation. It may result in tens of thousands of victims requiring emergency treatment and hundreds  of thousands requiring psychological and emotional support (Table 1). 

The estimates for a higher-yield (10  kT) device are increased by a factor or two or three. The type (or quality) of radiation released (high vs  low linear energy transfer) also partly determines the anticipated need. Thus, it has been suggested that  approximately 1% of people exposed to radioactive material released from an RDD or “dirty bomb” will  require emergent or urgent medical treatment (23). In this case, the number of people requiring emergency  treatment may be in the tens and the number of those requiring psychological or emotional support in the  thousands or tens of thousands. In the case of exposure to radioactive material released during an NPP  accident, millions of people may be exposed to low doses of radiation, as seen after the Chernobyl NPP  accident in 1986 (24). In such a scenario, emergency protective actions such as sheltering and limiting  consumption of contaminated food and water are more efficient in protecting health and reducing radiation  risk. Therefore, the number of MCM and supplies required for a public health and medical response may  vary from tens to hundreds of thousands (or possibly millions) of doses and treatments.