【英文】基尔世界经济研究所报告：中国作为国际最后贷款人（41页）

英文研究报告 2023年04月06日 09:32 管理员

This section summarizes the main insights on China’s rescue lending from our dataset. Figure 2 documents a sharp increase in Chinese bailout activity over time, distinguishing between swap line lending (in total USD 170 billion) and other types of rescue lending—in particular, bridge loans or balance of payments support by Chinese state-owned banks and enterprises like the CDB (in total USD 70 billion). This figure counts each individual borrowing separately, irrespective of whether it is a new loan or a rollover of a previous loan. If we disregard rollovers, the total amount of extended credit declines from 240 billion USD to roughly 100 billion USD.

In terms of incidence, we identify 128 separate rescue lending operations. Most of these are rollovers, meaning loans renewed upon maturity and going to the same country. Indeed, Figure 3 shows that some debtors, like Argentina, Mongolia or Pakistan, have received continuous balance of payments support from Chinese banks and the PBOC.13 These types of repeated bailouts by China are reminiscent of the “serial lending” practices by the IMF in recent decades (Reinhart and Trebesch 2016) and more broadly, the serial restructurings and bridge credits by private creditors prevalent during the 1980s debt crisis (Cruces and Trebesch 2013). Repeated rollovers also imply that the de facto maturities of Chinese rescue loans are longer than their relatively short de jure maturities suggest.