【英文】IMF报告：预计2023年全球经济增长2.8% 中国经济增长5.2%（206页）

英文研究报告 2023年04月26日 08:01 管理员

Risks to the outlook are squarely to the downside. Much uncertainty clouds the short- and medium-term outlook as the global economy adjusts to the shocks of 2020–22 and the recent fnancial sector turmoil. Recession concerns have gained prominence, while worries about stubbornly high infation persist. Tere is a signifcant risk that the recent banking system turbulence will result in a sharper and more persistent tightening of global fnancial conditions than anticipated in the baseline and plausible alternative scenarios, which would further deteriorate business and consumer confdence.

Additional downside risks include sharper contractionary efects than expected from the synchronous central bank rate hikes amid historically high private and public debt levels (see Box 1.2). Te combination of higher borrowing costs and lower growth could cause systemic debt distress in emerging market and developing economies. In addition, infation may prove stickier than expected, prompting further monetary tightening than currently anticipated. Other adverse risks include a faltering in China’s post–COVID-19 recovery, escalation of the war in Ukraine, and geoeconomic fragmentation further hindering multilateral eforts to address economic challenges. With debt levels, infation, and fnancial market volatility elevated, policymakers have limited space to ofset new negative shocks, especially in low-income countries.