【英文】IMF报告：预计2023年全球经济增长2.8% 中国经济增长5.2%（206页）

Risks to the outlook are squarely to the downside.  Much uncertainty clouds the short- and medium-term  outlook as the global economy adjusts to the shocks  of 2020–22 and the recent fnancial sector turmoil.  Recession concerns have gained prominence, while  worries about stubbornly high infation persist. Tere is a signifcant risk that the recent banking  system turbulence will result in a sharper and more  persistent tightening of global fnancial conditions than  anticipated in the baseline and plausible alternative  scenarios, which would further deteriorate business  and consumer confdence. 

Additional downside risks  include sharper contractionary efects than expected  from the synchronous central bank rate hikes amid  historically high private and public debt levels (see  Box 1.2). Te combination of higher borrowing costs  and lower growth could cause systemic debt distress  in emerging market and developing economies. In  addition, infation may prove stickier than expected,  prompting further monetary tightening than currently  anticipated. Other adverse risks include a faltering  in China’s post–COVID-19 recovery, escalation of  the war in Ukraine, and geoeconomic fragmentation further hindering multilateral eforts to address  economic challenges. With debt levels, infation, and  fnancial market volatility elevated, policymakers have  limited space to ofset new negative shocks, especially  in low-income countries.