【英文】世界经济论坛报告：首席经济学家展望（29页）

At the other end of the spectrum is Europe,  where 75% of chief economists expect  growth this year to be weak or very weak.  Dismal as this outlook is, it marks a signifcant  improvement since the last Outlook was  published in January: then, 68% expected  very weak growth in Europe in 2023; now,  that fgure is down to 6%. The improvement  can in part be attributed to the region’s winter  resilience in the face of the energy crisis, but  numerous factors continue to weigh on the  growth outlook for Europe, including weak  business and consumer sentiment,5  and  increasingly tight fnancial conditions.6 Latin America and the Caribbean and SubSaharan Africa also remain at the weaker  end of the outlook, with more than half of  respondents expecting weak growth. Both  regions confront a diffcult mix of headwinds:  tepid global conditions, policy uncertainty,  weak investment environments and some of  the highest infation rates globally.

The chief economists are now evenly split  on the outlook for the United States, with  half of respondents expecting moderate or  strong growth and the other half expecting  weak or very weak growth. This polarized  outlook is signifcantly more optimistic  than in January, when just 9% expected  moderate or strong growth, in line with  buoyant labour market conditions and  resilient domestic demand. Nevertheless,  the country’s prospects have been  somewhat clouded recently by heightened  uncertainty around fnancial stability and the  pace and extent of monetary tightening.  Recent developments in the labour  markets,8  fnancial markets9  and property  markets may point to stronger headwinds in  the second half of 2023.