【英文】世界经济论坛报告：首席经济学家展望（29页）

英文研究报告 2023年05月19日 07:59 管理员

At the other end of the spectrum is Europe, where 75% of chief economists expect growth this year to be weak or very weak. Dismal as this outlook is, it marks a signifcant improvement since the last Outlook was published in January: then, 68% expected very weak growth in Europe in 2023; now, that fgure is down to 6%. The improvement can in part be attributed to the region’s winter resilience in the face of the energy crisis, but numerous factors continue to weigh on the growth outlook for Europe, including weak business and consumer sentiment,5 and increasingly tight fnancial conditions.6 Latin America and the Caribbean and SubSaharan Africa also remain at the weaker end of the outlook, with more than half of respondents expecting weak growth. Both regions confront a diffcult mix of headwinds: tepid global conditions, policy uncertainty, weak investment environments and some of the highest infation rates globally.

The chief economists are now evenly split on the outlook for the United States, with half of respondents expecting moderate or strong growth and the other half expecting weak or very weak growth. This polarized outlook is signifcantly more optimistic than in January, when just 9% expected moderate or strong growth, in line with buoyant labour market conditions and resilient domestic demand. Nevertheless, the country’s prospects have been somewhat clouded recently by heightened uncertainty around fnancial stability and the pace and extent of monetary tightening. Recent developments in the labour markets,8 fnancial markets9 and property markets may point to stronger headwinds in the second half of 2023.