【英文】麦肯锡报告：生成式AI和美国工作的未来（76页）

The largest future job gains are expected to be in healthcare, an industry that already has an  imbalance, with 1.9 million unfilled openings as of April 2023. We estimate that there could be  demand for 3.5 million more jobs for health aides, health technicians, and wellness workers, plus  an additional two million healthcare professionals.10 By 2030, we further estimate a 23 percent increase in the demand for STEM jobs. Although  layoffs in the tech sector have been making headlines in 2023, this does not change the longerterm demand for tech talent among companies of all sizes and sectors as the economy continues  to digitize. Employers in banking, insurance, pharmaceuticals, and healthcare, for example,  are undertaking major digital transformations and need tech workers with advanced skills.

In addition, the transportation services category is expected to see job growth of 9 percent  by 2030.  Declining occupational categories The biggest future job losses are likely to occur in office support, customer service, and food  services. We estimate that demand for clerks12 could decrease by 1.6 million jobs, in addition to  losses of 830,000 for retail salespersons, 710,000 for administrative assistants, and 630,000  for cashiers. These jobs involve a high share of repetitive tasks, data collection, and elementary  data processing, all activities that automated systems can handle efficiently. Our analysis also  finds a modest decline in production jobs despite an upswing in the overall US manufacturing  sector, which is explained by the fact that the sector increasingly requires fewer traditional  production jobs but more skilled technical and digital roles.