【英文】国际投行报告：全球房地产泡沫指数2023（27页）

英文研究报告 2023年10月27日 07:43 管理员

The widespread decrease in imbalances was not only a consequence of falling house prices but was supported by robust market fundamentals and declining household leverage. As buying affordability has deteriorated significantly, renting has boomed. Apart from cities in the US, nominal rental growth has accelerated markedly since mid-2022 and has been positive in all locations analyzed. The sharpest rises in rents were recorded in Singapore and Dubai. In the wake of general inflation, nominal household incomes have continued to grow at a solid pace compared to the previous decade. And as mortgage lending growth halved in the last four quarters, aggregate household debt to economic output has been declining, especially in Europe.

Demand shows green shoots As unemployment rates in all the countries covered have remained well below their ten-year averages, the ensuing high level of job security has partly cushioned the impact of rising financing costs on housing demand. But inflation-driven income growth and price corrections have not been enough to meaningfully improve affordability. On average, the amount of living space that is financially affordable for a skilled service worker is still 40% lower than before the pandemic began. More downside in prices—at least in real terms—is likely if interest rates remain at their current elevated levels.