【英文】高盛报告：2024年美国经济展望（19页）

Inflation psychology has normalized too from the days when prices seemed to be spiking everywhere and many businesses and workers felt it was only fair that their own prices and wages rise accordingly. The Fed’s composite inflation expectations index has fallen sharply to a roughly target-consistent level as the price shocks associated with reopening and shortages have become a more distant memory (Exhibit 4).With the more daunting problems largely solved, the conditions for inflation to return to target in place, and the heaviest blows from monetary and fiscal tightening well behind us (Exhibit 10 below), we now see only a historically average 15% probability of recession over the next 12 months. The consensus, in contrast, still sees a much higher recession probability of 48% over the next 12 months (Exhibit 5).Inflation has fallen sharply from its pandemic peak and should begin its final descent in 2024. Core PCE inflation is down from a 5.5-6% to a 2.5-3% sequential annualized pace (Exhibit 6), and other measures of the underlying trend such as the trimmed mean and the median have softened significantly as well.In the housing rental market, normalization of elevated pandemic demand and a large increase in apartment supply has slowed leading indicators of new tenant rent inflation to a 1-2% annualized pace this year (Exhibit 7, right). The official housing inflation numbers have slowed less because they also cover continuing tenant rents, which fell behind the rapid growth of market rates in 2021 and 2022 and have been catching up. But we estimate that the gap between market rates and continuing tenant rents has fallen from 7.5% to around 2%, meaning that catch-up is coming to an end and the official numbers should converge more quickly toward the slower pace of the leading indicators next year.