【英文】经济学人智库报告：金砖国家影响2023（12页）

英文研究报告 2023年12月08日 07:46 管理员

China and Russia view the BRICS as a potential counterweight to the dominant position of Western countries, whose leadership is exercised through established global institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and the UN Security Council. However, an expanded BRICS is unlikely to immediately threaten the existing world order or herald the creation of an anti-Western bloc. Brazil and India are reluctant to swing an anti-Western cudgel, and BRICS members remain split over their response to the Russia-Ukraine war, illustrating the group’s diverse opinions. Long-standing tensions between China and India remain a major fault line, amplifed by their rivalry for the leadership of the “Global South”—a new term for developing countries and emerging markets. The expansion of BRICS will potentially boost its geopolitical infuence, provided it can reconcile its internal tensions, but the group will become even more unwieldy. Adding six new countries (some with pre-existing tensions) risks generating more problems than solutions and will make it harder to reach consensus. The inclusion of Iran, a close Russian ally that is similarly subject to US economic sanctions, could be problematic, aggravated by Iran’s poor relations with all three of the new Arab members. Adding to the strains, Egypt and Ethiopia remain at loggerheads over a large Ethiopian dam on the Upper Blue Nile.