【英文】贝莱德集团报告：2024全球展望（17页）

英文研究报告 2023年12月15日 16:13 管理员

Markets have been flip-flopping between hopes for a soft economic landing and fears of yet higher rates that ultimately result in recession. This has created volatility, as the chart shows. The U.S. economy has been navigating two large shocks, in our view. The first was the pandemic. Over the past two years, most new jobs created have been due to the restart of activity after shutdowns. A shift in consumer spending drove up inflation by creating a mismatch between what people wanted to buy and what the economy was set up to produce. That mismatch is now resolving, and inflation has been falling as a result. As the effects of the pandemic shock recede, the effects of the second, more structural one are becoming clearer: A worker shortage has emerged, as a growing share of the U.S. population ages into retirement. That’s why unemployment is at historic lows – even though U.S. growth has averaged well below its pre-Covid rate. See page 3. The workforce is growing more slowly in Europe and China, too, and it’s one of several long-term production constraints we think will prevent many economies from growing at their pre-pandemic pace without sparking renewed inflation.