【英文】贝莱德集团报告：2024全球展望（17页）

Markets have been flip-flopping  between hopes for a soft economic  landing and fears of yet higher rates  that ultimately result in recession.  This has created volatility, as the  chart shows. The U.S. economy has been  navigating two large shocks, in our  view. The first was the pandemic.  Over the past two years, most new  jobs created have been due to the  restart of activity after shutdowns.  A shift in consumer spending drove  up inflation by creating a mismatch  between what people wanted to buy  and what the economy was set up to  produce. That mismatch is now  resolving, and inflation has been  falling as a result.  As the effects of the pandemic shock  recede, the effects of the second,  more structural one are becoming  clearer: A worker shortage has  emerged, as a growing share of the  U.S. population ages into retirement.  That’s why unemployment is at  historic lows – even though U.S.  growth has averaged well below its  pre-Covid rate. See page 3. The workforce is growing more  slowly in Europe and China, too, and  it’s one of several long-term  production constraints we think will  prevent many economies from  growing at their pre-pandemic pace  without sparking renewed inflation.