【英文】德国智库报告：为长期战争做准备：2024年俄乌有可能停火吗？（19页）

Nearly two years after the start of Russia’s full-scale  invasion, the war is gradually transforming. Ukraine  managed to thwart Russia’s initial plans, defending  not only Kyiv, but liberating the northeastern part  of the country, nearly the entire Kharkiv region, and  parts of the Kherson region, including its capital. Still,  approximately 18 percent of Ukraine’s territory remains occupied.4 Ukraine could only launch its long-awaited counter-offensive in early June 2023, mostly due to the slow  and cumbersome deliveries of much-needed Western heavy weaponry and ammunition and the sluggish  training of Ukrainian soldiers. This provided Russia  with sufficient time to dig in its forces, build extensive fortifications, and thus strengthen its grasp on  the occupied territories. The Ukrainian counter-offensive has brought mixed  results. On the one hand, Ukrainian forces considerably downgraded Russia’s already scarce pool of welltrained infantry and caused significant losses for the  Russian artillery and armored troops. In the Zaporizhzhia section of the front line, Ukraine enjoyed artillery superiority during the summer months, inflicting  heavy losses on Russian troops.