【英文】高盛报告：中国的超强产能和制造能力如何影响世界（34页）

英文研究报告 2024年08月21日 11:44 管理员

A year ago our China team deconstructed China’s supply chain amidst unprecedented changes to the outlook, to build a picture of resilience, opportunity and vulnerability. A year on and a year worse, we sample seven significant global manufacturing industries representing 22% of China's GDP growth. In five sectors, these industries have built more capacity than the entire global demand pool — imbalances that have left more than 50% of capacity running at zero or negative cash margins. As China's transition continues, we ask how cyclical are these imbalances, how much further can they go and how might we gauge inflection points ahead. We conclude that Chinese manufacturers are responding to poor profitability and uncertainties around limitations to market access to the US and EU, pre-emptively adjusting the pace of future additions of capacity, in contrast to consensus narratives. We expect a rebalancing in supply versus demand, a restoration in profit, and sharp deceleration of Chinese supply to the world through 2028.