【英文】汇丰银行报告：全球外汇市场展望：新的世界秩序Currency Outlook：FX and trade wars（50P）

英文研究报告 2019年07月23日 08:57 管理员

There are many methods for trying to derive the elusive fair value of an exchange rate. Chart 9 illustrates some of them, including HSBC’s Little Mac Index. The overall picture painted is that the USD, at current levels, is stronger than most measures of fair value. Perhaps with a degree of irony, the US administration’s hunt for currency stability risks locking the USD at a level that hinders a closing of the US trade deficit. US negotiators would presumably argue that currency stability clauses would at least help prevent the situation from worsening. For those on the other side of the exchange rate equation, being compelled to hold the currency at “cheap” level should not provoke unpleasant economic consequences.

One quirk of the attempt to encourage currency stability is whether this aspiration can be consistent with the US administration’s desire to cut its trade deficit by soliciting agreements from its trading partners to buy more US goods. Take for example, the US effort to eliminate its trade deficit with China, which stood at USD419bn in 2018. China has already stepped up its purchases of US agricultural goods and during trade talks earlier this year, there were reports that it would commit to further increasing its imports from the US5 . Without a currency stability clause, an active effort by China to boost its imports from the US would ordinarily cause the RMB to weaken against the USD. But the US administration might object to such a weakening as being a breach of the exchange rate clause, and so China could conceivably have to intervene to manipulate its currency against the natural effects of its other steps to reduce its trade surplus with the US.

Financial markets are clearly pre-occupied with the outlook for US trade negotiations, with delays prompting bouts of “risk off” and driving expectations of a dovish central bank response. The angst is understandable given the escalation in trade tensions is contributing to the downturn in manufacturing activity that may now be spilling over into services (chart 10). Trade sentiment has plunged to new lows (chart 11).