【英文】2019年排放差距报告Emissions Gap Report 2019（108P）

英文研究报告 2019年12月05日 07:10 管理员

There is no sign of GHG emissions peaking in the next few years; every year of postponed peaking means that deeper and faster cuts will be required. By 2030, emissions would need to be 25 per cent and 55 per cent lower than in 2018 to put the world on the least-cost pathway to limiting global warming to below 2˚C and 1.5°C respectively. Figure ES.1 shows a decomposition of the average annual growth rates of economic activity (gross domestic product – GDP), primary energy use, energy use per unit of GDP, CO2 emissions per unit of energy and GHG emissions from all sources for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD members. Economic growth has been much stronger in non-OECD members, growing at over 4.5 per cent per year in the last decade compared with 2 per cent per year in OECD members. Since OECD and non-OECD members have had similar declines in the amount of energy used per unit of economic activity, stronger economic growth means that primary energy use has increased much faster in non-OECD members (2.8 per cent per year) than in OECD members (0.3 per cent per year). OECD members already use less energy per unit of economic activity, which suggests that nonOECD members have the potential to accelerate improvements even as they grow, industrialize and urbanize their economies in order to meet development objectives.

While the global data provide valuable insight for understanding the continued growth in emissions, it is necessary to examine the trends of major emitters to gain a clearer picture of the underlying trends (figure ES.2). Country rankings change dramatically when comparing total and per capita emissions: for example, it is evident that China now has per capita emissions in the same range as the European Union (EU) and is almost at a similar level to Japan. Consumption-based emission estimates, also known as a carbon footprint, that adjust the standard territorial emissions for imports and exports, provide policymakers with a deeper insight into the role of consumption, trade and the interconnectedness of countries. Figure ES.3 shows that the net flow of embodied carbon is from developing to developed countries, even as developed countries reduce their territorial emissions this effect is being partially offset by importing embodied carbon, implying for example that EU per capita emissions are higher than Chinese when consumption-based emissions are included. It should be noted that consumptionbased emissions are not used within the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).