【英文】麦格理报告：2020中国互联网与媒体展望：超越激烈的收购竞争China Internet & Media 2020 Outlook: Beyond the acquisition r（92P）

英文研究报告 2019年12月18日 08:37 管理员

For the past few years, Chinese internet companies have focused significantly on finding new users in lower-tier cities amongst the burgeoning new middle class. Venture capital firms have continued to reward start-ups based on MAU than earnings metrics, so a user-acquisition focused business strategy has been pervasive between both public and private companies in the space. As a result, user acquisition cost has risen substantially in recent years. While industry trends such as rising penetration of users in lower-tier cities or growing middle class consumers and better local/personalized services are still ongoing themes, we are finding companies and industry counterparts increasingly discuss optimization and retention strategies instead of an overt focus on new user acquisition.

Whether the trend manifests in the form of a company discussing “Flagship store 2.0” (see the Alibaba section of the report), “CRM tools such as mini program” or “socialization or privatization of traffic (私域流量)”, we believe an increasingly important element to understanding the consumer internet narrative will revolve around how to optimize and support user retention. This ultimately translates into ‘who has sticky users and can activate them at higher ARPU and margins than others?’ We believe the focus on retention and re-engagement is becoming more prevalent for two key factors. New users are becoming harder to find Smartphone penetration data still shows tier-3 and below cities having less than 60% penetration while tier 1-2 cities enjoy ~90%. However, if we consider that a significant portion of the potential labor force in lower-tier cities has already moved to higher-tier cities for work, resulting in a greater proportion of young adolescents and older population in lower-tier cities, we believe it is natural to assume that smartphone penetration will likely plateau at a lower rate than higher-tier cities.