【英文】新冠病毒疫情对全球航空旅行行业初步影响报告（14页）

英文研究报告 2020年03月05日 06:46 管理员

With no hedging or change in the crack spread, a 6 $/b lower fuel price could save $13 billion off the industry’s 2020 fuel bill. Our December forecasts were based on an average 63 $/b oil price. However, many airlines will have hedged 2020 fuel so this benefit – if no further change – could be delayed for some.

Scenario notes: The December 2019 forecast can be found at Economic performance report. The final column is indicative, showing how the forecasts RPK growth numbers for 2020 could be reduced if this particular COVID-19 scenario came about. It takes no account of any other changes, such as lower fuel prices, policy actions or knock-on and second-round effects. The scenario impacts are subtracted from the December forecast for simplicity, though this is not exact.