【英文】美国与中国和俄罗斯的竞争：危机驱动下的美国战略改变需求（84页）

英文研究报告 2020年06月10日 07:02 管理员

It should be stressed in making these points, that nuclear modernization – hopefully coupled with effective nuclear arms control – remains critical to assuring that mutual assured destruction (MAD) is preserved while also assuring that the U.S. will not lose its massive nuclear edge over rogue nuclear powers like North Korea. The fact that the U.S. needs to give more priority to competing in gray area and hybrid warfare at lower levels of conflict and also deal with the impact of the Coronavirus crisis does not mean it can back away from nuclear competition. The problem with the current U.S. strategies and defense plans dealing with Chinese and Russian competition is not being able to recognize the primacy that should be given to other aspects of competition, gray area operations, and different types of conflict. Chart Three illustrates this continuing need for modernization by providing a snapshot of recent Chinese and Russian nuclear modernization.

This charts only covers past steps, and both China and Russia have since announced major new areas of modernization. Particularly in the case of Russia, some announcements like the focus on hypersonic weapons and a long-range submersible nuclear strike system seem to be designed to imply that Russia is taking the lead in dramatic new areas, while Russia is also more quietly modernizing the rest of its delivery forces. In the case of China, it is deploying MIRV’d ICBM’s for the first time, constructing a new nuclear capable bomber, deploying new dual-capable missiles, and making major increases in its still limited inventory of nuclear weapons for the first time in years. These trends have recently been reflected in the Chinese news articles, which publicly discusses the need for an increase to 1,000 warheads and a stockpile of 100 DF-41 ICBM’s with MIRV’d warheads.