【英文】德银报告：亚洲宏观洞察：最坏的时候过去了吗（65页）

英文研究报告 2020年07月01日 06:38 管理员

Looking forward, considerable uncertainty still remains with external demand. Medical and electronics exports will likely drop as the shortage situation alleviates. Meanwhile, demand for other products could potentially stabilize or even strengthen slightly as US and European economies exit from lock down. Assuming that China's exports growth will drop to -15% in H2 2020, our full year exports growth forecast is now at -12% (up from -15% previously) and imports forecast is unchanged at -13%. We revise up our China current account surplus forecast to 1.4% of GDP in 2020 (from 0.7% previously).

Given the robust economic recovery and stronger than expected exports, we are lowering our expectations for further stimulus measures. The government will continue to implement the announced stimulus package, which is already sizable. But it is unlikely to further increase the stimulus package; new policy measures will mostly be targeted at supporting vulnerable sectors and groups. Examples include the PBOC's new facility for SME lending; and the government's policy initiatives to help migrant worker employment. Total fiscal stimulus is slightly above 6% of GDP in 2020, by our estimates. The government has just announced its fiscal package for 2020 in late May.

The fiscal plan implies a 3.6% of GDP increase in fiscal deficit through tax relief, spending increase, issuing more local government special bonds, and a one-off RMB1tr special CGB issuance to finance Covid related spendings. On top of that, 1% of GDP additional stimulus will be provided through the social security funds by foregoing employer contributions and running down the fund balance. Another 1.5% of GDP stimulus will likely come from local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). LGFVs have been borrowing more, thanks to a change in government policy tone combined with easing monetary and credit conditions. We examined the 800+ LGFVs who have published Q1 results; their debt grew 15% y/y in Q1 2020, a significant acceleration from the debt growth rate in 2018-19 (see our report here for more on the fiscal package).