【英文】国际清算银行报告：2020全球年度宏观经济报告（118页）

英文研究报告 2020年07月14日 07:10 管理员

To support informal workers during the lockdowns, some EME governments have extended existing cash transfer schemes, increasing or front-loading disbursements. However, existing conditional cash transfer programmes are unlikely to be sufficient: a significant share of informal workers have incomes above national poverty lines and are therefore ineligible. For that reason, many governments have introduced new measures, including one-off unconditional cash transfers to informal workers in Argentina, Peru and Turkey; two-month transfers in Colombia and the Philippines; three-month transfers in Brazil, Chile and Thailand; and a six-month transfer in South Africa. The payouts of the programmes range from 13 to 60% of the monthly minimum wage (Graph I.D, lefthand panel). In many cases, this is less than the average monthly labour income earned by informal workers as reported in national income surveys (right-hand panel). Countries with less fiscal space tend to offer less generous benefits (eg Chile, Colombia and South Africa). The estimated cost of these programmes (in annualised terms) ranges from 0.3% of GDP South Africa to 7.4% in the Philippines.

The programmes’ reach is extensive in some countries, but an important challenge is to identify those who are eligible. To identify the targeted population, some countries are relying on national tax and ID databases, registries from other existing social assistance programmes, and online platforms for application by the public. Eligibility criteria vary: in some cases, they exclude workers who are currently benefiting from existing cash transfer schemes and other social assistance programmes; in other cases, they allow workers to receive more than one benefit. Caps on income are also part of eligibility criteria. To prevent fraud, some countries cross-check applications with social security, unemployment insurance and tax authority databases to verify that beneficiaries have no formal employment. Yet it is unclear to what extent these programmes are reaching the targeted informal workers.