【英文】美国兰德报告：中国的大战略（155页）

英文研究报告 2020年08月12日 07:20 管理员

For the remainder of his administration, Xi Jinping has a simple set of priorities. First, he aims to ensure economic stability and will likely use familiar policy tools: controls on real estate and capital markets coupled with increased state involvement in the regular economy. If this stability is maintained, Xi will begin to make incremental moves toward increased roles for markets, but always with the party-state leading the way. In the coming decades, BRI may or may not begin to bear fruit in achieving its desired goals, achieving stronger economic ties with participating nations, and developing foreign export markets for Chinese goods. Imports from BRI nations could also increase, facilitated by access to the Chinese economy and its consumers.

By 2050, it is likely that China will have integrated technology into many of its key sectors and could even be a world leader in certain technology areas. Chinese industry will have likely moved from incremental to disruptive innovation and developed niches of high-value-added manufacturing that could challenge traditional world export leaders, such as Germany and Japan. Specific industries that China is positioned to lead include genomics, supercomputing, and even cutting-edge technologies.